By admin | January 26, 2009 - 10:55 am - Posted in Articles

Some investors love the stock market. They live and breathe equities: the excitement, the passion, the devastation of loss, the victory. Some like the options and futures markets, feeling it takes more skill than equities. And, there are some that prefer the global aspects of the FOREX.

But no matter what you prefer, you come across again and again the problem of whether you should trade with the trend, or trade for range. The impact of which method is chosen affects your chance of success, and, the reason we’re all here, your wallet (or purse as the case may be).

But those dealing in the FOREX have a unique advantage in that the market responds well to both styles of trading. So, what exactly is trading trend and range? Let’s take a look.

Following the crowd

Put simply, a trend is the direction a market, or the price of a single asset, takes. Trends vary from short, to long, to longer and to even longer or shorter.

There are trend identifiers that can tell you which way the wind is blowing. The simplest, and probably the best, method is to look at the higher lows in an uptrend and the lower highs when the market or asset is in a downtrend. There are other methods of course. For example, some investors like to define a trend as “a deviation from a range as indicated by the Bollinger Band.” What’s a Bollinger Band, you ask? It’s a band plotted two standard deviations away from a simple moving average.

But in the end, it doesn’t matter how you define it or look at it because the goal is the same: to make money by buying in on a trend early and holding on until the trend gives out and starts slowing. Most traders use tight stop trade orders (an order to buy or sell a security when its price surpasses a certain point), to limit their risk.

This method of trend trading can have huge payoffs. Leverage in the FOREX, because of its size and 24 hour trading, is typically 100:1, meaning that you only need to put down $1 of margin to get $100 worth of currency control. Given that the stock market is 2:1 and the futures market which is usually 25:1, you can see why you can make a huge amount of money with trend trading in the FOREX.

The Long Term

But trend trading isn’t for everybody. It takes discipline, with many traders meeting 20 or even 30 stop calls before they can catch a trend. If you get emotional about it and try to fight the market, you could lose your shirt.

That’s where range trading comes in. The range trader doesn’t care about direction. He trades knowing that no matter where the currency goes, it will come back to where it started. Range trading is based on the theory that prices will trade at the same levels many times, and the range trader will be there to gather up those profits from the oscillations in price.

But range trading isn’t free and clear either. A range trader will have to have a lot of money they are willing to risk to put the practice into play successfully. But, with more money (in the case of the FOREX, more leverage), there’s more chance of the trader’s enemy (i.e. emotion) coming into play. Positions can go against you many times in a row before you get a profit, and many traders just don’t have the stomach to watch their hard earned cash dwindling while they hang on to the idea of profits in the future. Also, if you’re not careful, with more than a few losses in a row you could trigger a margin call before you’ve had a chance for the currency to produce profits for you.

But, don’t despair. Many FOREX dealers have come up with a solution: they allow you to trade in mini-lots. By trading in mini-lots you can withstand many more drawdowns before triggering a stop order. This allows you to withstand more losses in a row before a margin call is issued.

One or the Other

Regardless of which method the trader chooses, the FOREX market is ready and able for both. As long as the trader remains disciplined and realizes that there will be some losses no matter what they do, they will improve their chances of fattening their bank accounts.

Kevin Davis has been investing online for 10 years and just recently started looking into expanding his investments into the FOREX market. To learn more about Kevin, visit his blog at http://www.KevinHDavis.com

Most forex brokers that you will use online have developed their trading platforms so that they calculate your profits/losses for you. So why am I writing this article?

Well, it’s pretty simple really.

If you are serious about being a successful forex trader you need to understand the mathematics behind your trades. Plus it makes sure that you can keep tabs on your forex broker, so you can make sure they are not ‘cooking the books’.

As a forex trader, I’d expect you to be numerate, so it should be pretty easy for you to calculate your profits and losses. But I can understand if you are new to forex trading it might not be initially self-explanatory.

The 2 formulae you need to commit to memory.

(In this calculation I’m assuming you are trading in USD.)

When the US Dollar is the second currency (the quote currency), the formula to use is:

1 – Profit is equal to: the price change in PIPs multiplied by the units traded. (e.g. profit = pips price change x traded units)

Secondly if the US Dollar is the first currency in the pair (base currency), the formula to use is:

2 – Profit is equal to: the change in price in PIPs multiplied by the units traded divided by the exit price. e.g. profit = price change in pips x units traded / exit price

So to ‘hammer this home’ and make sure you really understand this process I want to give you a few examples.

To start with we’ll use an example where the US dollar is the second currency, the quote currency, and to make things easy we’re going to use a 1% broker margin. So you can trade up to 100,000 USD with only 1000 USD.

OK?

Great. We’ll take the EUR/USD which for example is trading at 1.5618/9. Your analysis has led you to predict that the Euro is going to rise in value against the dollar so you start a trade to buy more Euros and sell US Dollars.

So you end up buying $100,000 worth of units at a price of 1.5619 – remembering that you are buying so you have to buy at the ask price – this is the last/second number in the quote (so you buy at the ask price of 1.5619 not 1.5618).

Your predictions turn out to be correct. Congratulations, the price rise to 1.5635/6. So you start another trade to sell the Euros and buy USDs. For this trade you use the bid price as you are selling, which is 1.5635.

So here’s where your maths comes in.

As you purchased the Euros at 1.5619 and then sold at 1.5635 your profit is 16 pips, or 0.0016. So before that makes any sense we need to convert that into proper money. So this is where we use our formulae.

Profits = 0.0016 (price change in pips) x 100,000 (units traded) = $160.00

If you are trading standard sized lots of a currency pair as we did above of 100,000, in which you use the USD as the quote currency, a quick rule to remember is that a pip is equal to c.$10. Hence 16 pips = $160.

So let’s take another quick example, but this time we’ll use the USD as the base currency.

You place a buy order for 100,000 units of USD/JPY at 103.20. The price increases and you sell at 103.33. You just made a quick 13 pips. So to calculate your profit in your second formula:

Profit = .13 (pips) x 100,000 (units traded) / 103.33 (exit price) = $110.78

Easy huh?

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By admin | December 18, 2008 - 6:16 pm - Posted in Articles

titleCurrency Trading Strategy – How To Use The Fib 127 For Consistent Profits/titlepA solid currency trading strategy consists of entering a trade at the right place, having a stop that is properly calculated, and setting a reasonable profit target level that works time after time after time./ppMany newer traders set too ambitious profit targets expecting the trade to be the big one and hoping it will help offset the losses they have accumulated./ppHowever, a far more effective currency trading strategy is to set a reasonable profit target each time, not expecting the home run, and being satisfied with smaller profits which on a consistent basis will build the equity in the account surprisingly quickly once the compounding action kicks in./ppHere is where the Fibonacci tool comes in./ppThis article assumes a trader knows how to use the Fibonacci tool which comes as a standard technical analysis tool on most charting software packages./ppWhile the key retracement levels are 38, 50, 62 and 70 percent, two extension levels are commonly used – 1.27 and 1.62 percent./ppbThe Importance Of Fib 127/b/ppIt is the 1.27 level we are interested in./ppWhy?/ppBecause price regularly gets to the 1.27 level, or at least within a few pips of it. Price also gets to the 1.62 level fairly often but not nearly as often as the 1.27 level./ppSo if you are trading with the trend, always a safe currency trading strategy, and price has pulled back to the 50 or 62 retracement levels, there is a very reasonable chance price will reach the 1.27 target./ppIf price pulls back to the 79 retracement level it may not go so far. If you trade from that retracement, you will want to take the first profit at the end of the swing as price may not extend beyond that point to the 1.27 or 1.62 level./ppSome traders just focus on this currency trading strategy when going with the trend:/ppul liIn at the Fib 50 retracement/li liOut at the Fib 127 extension/li/ul/ppbWhy is this such a sound currency trading strategy?/b/ppBecause the Fib 38 retracement level does not offer such a good risk reward ratio many times. There is always the risk price will pull back further and take out your stop./ppOn the other hand, price frequently fails to reach the 62 or 79 retracement levels so the trader is left on the sidelines as the trade fails to get filled./ppThe 50 level is frequently reached so the trader has a good chance of getting his order filled./ppOn the other hand, the 127 extension is not too ambitious. In at 50 and out at 127 will often net a profit of somewhere between 25 and 40 pips. With a 20 to 25 pip stop the risk reward ratio is satisfactory./ppbHow To Use Fib 127/b/ppHere are some other factors to consider when using the Fib 127 extension:/ppLook to see if this level coincides with other factors such as/pliA previous key level of support or resistance on the higher time frames such as 1 hour, 4 hour, daily, or even weekly./liliThe 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the 1 hour or 4 hour. This often provides quite a strong level of support and resistance./liliA pivot point (Central Pivot Point, R1, R2, S1, S2, or M1-4 levels ) calculated from the previous days High, Low and Close./libr/ulpEven when targeting the Fib 127 as the profit taking point, it is wise to trim a couple of pips of the limit order. So often price will nearly reach Fib 127 and pull back./ppYes it might go on to touch it later but in the meantime price retraces and you have to have the mental stamina to be able to handle that./ppMany traders would rather just take a slightly smaller profit and save themselves one or two hours of price consolidation with the risk they may lose the profit altogether./ppA solid currency trading strategy develops over time. A key ingredient is not being too ambitious. The Fib 127 extension level is a reasonable profit target you can use regularly to extract your wages from the Forex market!/ppbFor a free Fibonacci calculator, pivot point calculator, and the best free economic calendars click here:/b/ppa target=_new href=http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/tools.htmlhttp://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/tools.html/a/ppbFor a free candle chart pattern recognition reference tool click here:/b/ppa target=_new href=http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Candle-Chart-Patternshttp://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Candle-Chart-Patterns/a/ppbSee how to use trendlines to get an optimum trade entry point:/b/ppa target=_new href=http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/trendline.htmlhttp://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/trendline.html/a/pbrbr

By admin | December 14, 2008 - 4:02 am - Posted in Articles

The recent turmoil in the worlds equities markets has made it harder and harder to successfully make money from trading equity stocks. The after effects of the credit crisis are having a much longer and more sustained affect on global stock markets than first feared.

Why equities are a bad choice

Virtually all listed companies fund their activities through a combination of both equity (issuing shares to investors) and debt. The debt component of a companies funding can be both short term (such as an overdraft facility) or longer term in the form of a term loan or through the issue of bonds.

The recent credit crisis has occurred because banks have become much less willing to lend money to each other and other large corporate for fear that the counter party will have losses related to the housing crisis in the form of mortgage backed securities. In short they are scared and wary of counter parties losing money through sub prime investments and defaulting on their repayments.

The above factor has had the effect of making borrowing more expensive. If companies have to pay more to borrow their profits will be reduced. As a result of this stock markets have been performing badly.

A lot of investors have been moving their money instead into commodity related investments such as oil, gas and energy. This makes sense for a couple of reasons. Firstly such commodities tend to have a scarcity factor. In other words the supply of oil is limited by the amount that there is in the ground.

In addition to limited supply the demand for these commodity products has been increasing dramatically as emerging nations and economies such as India and China grow rapidly and consume them at a much higher rate. The net effect of these factors has been rising commodity prices.

With neither demand looking likely to fall or supply increasing, investing in commodities is looking like a smart bet, especially at a time of such high volatility in the equities markets.

To learn all you need to know about trading commodities or investing in oil please visit one of the links above.

By admin | December 9, 2008 - 8:41 pm - Posted in Articles

The Internet has brought a lot of changes in the way that we live our lives and our conduct our personal business. We can shop, date, and bank online. You can do just about anything online.

We can even trade stocks, forex, bonds, futures to name a few online. Traders love having the convenience of being able to look at their accounts whenever they see fit, and brokers also like having the choice to take orders over the net as opposed to the phone.

When you are new to investing it is an advantage to have the ability to speak with a broker. You are able to ask questions face to face and have any fears taken care off. Online stock trading can be very risky when you don’t have the correct information. If this is the case, make sure that you learn as much as you can about trading stocks before you start trading online.

Most brokerage houses now offer online trading to their clientele. Because doing business can cut down operating costs a great thing about trading online is that fees and commissions can be much lower. Online trading is great but like anything there are some disadvantages.

When it comes to choosing an online broker or brokerage firm go with years of establishment as well as feedback from other clients. You won’t find one that has been in business online for many years of course because online trading is just in its infancy, but you can find a company that has been in business that long and now offers online trading.

Working on the internet means relying on a machine and like all other machines break downs can happen. In trading if this is at the most inopportune time it could cause losses for you. You won’t always have the ability to get online to make a trade. You need to be sure that you can call and speak with a broker if this is the case using the online broker. This is truth for both advanced traders or beginners.

Online trading is a fantastic opportunity, convenient and can be highly profitable but it isn’t for everyone. Think carefully before you trade online and make sure that you really know what you are doing. Do your research and homework and you will do very well.

For a FREE indeth Forex Trading E-Course visit Learning Forex Traiding Course. This trading course covers the important basics every trader must know before starting to trade, to get it for free Click Here!

Wadzanai Wendy Nenzou is an internet entrepreneur who is interested in the forex market, stockmarket, anything to do with investment. She has a Bachelor of Commerce and a Masters Of Accounting. She enjoys sharing her knowledge with other marketers and people at large. To learn more from her visit learning-forex-traiding.com

If you are considering forex day trading then you need to read this article first. Why?
Because, day traders have been making the simple critical error for a number of years its obvious yet traders still make it and its this.

Day trading does not work anymore.

We all have the same information at the same time and all moves in short term time frames are random. We will look at this more in a moment but let’s first give you the reality check on all those trading systems that claim big gains.

They all make big claims but there not real gains there in hindsight on paper and you will always see a disclaimer. Tell me would you trust any system with this on it:

“CFTC RULE 4.41 – Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown”.

I wouldn’t but thousands do – this disclaimer allows you to make up anything you want and say hey it’s just a simulation!

What good is that? – We need to make money going forward and don’t have the luxury of knowing the closing prices.

Also why on earth would you trust someone saying how great their system is when they haven’t had the courage to trade it for themselves. Of course if it worked then you wouldn’t, even need to sell it judging by the track records the vendor would be rich beyond their wildest dreams – yet they offer you these riches for $100 or so bucks UMM.

You cannot tell where short term prices are going and that’s a fact and that’s why you never see a day trader make real gains – Your going to lose so don’t try. If you want to trade short term use a forex swing trading system.

Moves are short term a few days to around a week, you get plenty of action and it can be very profitable. You will find lots of swing traders who make money and no day traders.

To win you need to get the odds on your side and that means trading a longer term time frame. If you have not discovered swing trading check it out.

Day traders tend to be lazy or arrogant or think currency trading is easy – well its not that’s why 95% of traders lose all their money ( 100% in the case of day traders!) and of course you wouldn’t expect it to be with the rewards on offer

Fact is you need to get the right forex education and get the odds on your side and you can’t do that in a random trading environment.

Forex day trading will see you lose because you can’t get the odds on your side, so try swing trading and you can get the odds on your side and enjoy forex trading success.

NEW! 2 X FREE ESSENTIAL TRADER PDFS + PROFESSIONAL FOREX TRADING COURSE

For free 2 x trading Pdf’s with 90 of pages of essential info and more on Swing Trading Systems visit our website at: http://www.learncurrencytradingonline.com

By admin | December 5, 2008 - 10:42 pm - Posted in Articles

For those unfamiliar with the term, FOREX (FOReign EXchange market), refers to an international exchange market where currencies are bought and sold. The Foreign Exchange Market that we see today began in the 1970′s, when free exchange rates and floating currencies were introduced. In such an environment only participants in the market determine the price of one currency against another, based upon supply and demand for that currency.

FOREX is a somewhat unique market for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is one of the few markets in which it can be said with very few qualifications that it is free of external controls and that it cannot be manipulated. It is also the largest liquid financial market, with trade reaching between 1 and 1.5 trillion US dollars a day. With this much money moving this fast, it is clear why a single investor would find it near impossible to significantly affect the price of a major currency. Furthermore, the liquidity of the market means that unlike some rarely traded stock, traders are able to open and close positions within a few seconds as there are always willing buyers and sellers.

Another somewhat unique characteristic of the FOREX money market is the variance of its participants. Investors find a number of reasons for entering the market, some as longer term hedge investors, while others utilize massive credit lines to seek large short term gains. Interestingly, unlike blue-chip stocks, which are usually most attractive only to the long term investor, the combination of rather constant but small daily fluctuations in currency prices, create an environment which attracts investors with a broad range of strategies.

How FOREX Works

Transactions in foreign currencies are not centralized on an exchange, unlike say the NYSE, and thus take place all over the world via telecommunications. Trade is open 24 hours a day from Sunday afternoon until Friday afternoon (00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday). In almost every time zone around the world, there are dealers who will quote all major currencies. After deciding what currency the investor would like to purchase, he or she does so via one of these dealers (some of which can be found online). It is quite common practice for investors to speculate on currency prices by getting a credit line (which are available to those with capital as small as $500), and vastly increase their potential gains and losses. This is called marginal trading.

Marginal Trading

Marginal trading is simply the term used for trading with borrowed capital. It is appealing because of the fact that in FOREX investments can be made without a real money supply. This allows investors to invest much more money with fewer money transfer costs, and open bigger positions with a much smaller amount of actual capital. Thus, one can conduct relatively large transactions, very quickly and cheaply, with a small amount of initial capital. Marginal trading in an exchange market is quantified in lots. The term “lot” refers to approximately $100,000, an amount which can be obtained by putting up as little as 0.5% or $500.

EXAMPLE: You believe that signals in the market are indicating that the British Pound will go up against the US Dollar. You open 1 lot for buying the Pound with a 1% margin at the price of 1.49889 and wait for the exchange rate to climb. At some point in the future, your predictions come true and you decide to sell. You close the position at 1.5050 and earn 61 pips or about $405. Thus, on an initial capital investment of $1,000, you have made over 40% in profits. (Just as an example of how exchange rates change in the course of a day, an average daily change of the Euro (in Dollars) is about 70 to 100 pips.)

When you decide to close a position, the deposit sum that you originally made is returned to you and a calculation of your profits or losses is done. This profit or loss is then credited to your account.

Investment Strategies: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis

The two fundamental strategies in investing in FOREX are Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. Most small and medium sized investors in financial markets use Technical Analysis. This technique stems from the assumption that all information about the market and a particular currency’s future fluctuations is found in the price chain. That is to say, that all factors which have an effect on the price have already been considered by the market and are thus reflected in the price. Essentially then, what this type of investor does is base his/her investments upon three fundamental suppositions. These are: that the movement of the market considers all factors, that the movement of prices is purposeful and directly tied to these events, and that history repeats itself. Someone utilizing technical analysis looks at the highest and lowest prices of a currency, the prices of opening and closing, and the volume of transactions. This investor does not try to outsmart the market, or even predict major long term trends, but simply looks at what has happened to that currency in the recent past, and predicts that the small fluctuations will generally continue just as they have before.

A Fundamental Analysis is one which analyzes the current situations in the country of the currency, including such things as its economy, its political situation, and other related rumors. By the numbers, a country’s economy depends on a number of quantifiable measurements such as its Central Bank’s interest rate, the national unemployment level, tax policy and the rate of inflation. An investor can also anticipate that less quantifiable occurrences, such as political unrest or transition will also have an effect on the market. Before basing all predictions on the factors alone, however, it is important to remember that investors must also keep in mind the expectations and anticipations of market participants. For just as in any stock market, the value of a currency is also based in large part on perceptions of and anticipations about that currency, not solely on its reality.

Make Money with Currency Trading on FOREX

FOREX investing is one of the most potentially rewarding types of investments available. While certainly the risk is great, the ability to conduct marginal trading on FOREX means that potential profits are enormous relative to initial capital investments. Another benefit of FOREX is that its size prevents almost all attempts by others to influence the market for their own gain. So that when investing in foreign currency markets one can feel quite confident that the investment he or she is making has the same opportunity for profit as other investors throughout the world. While investing in FOREX short term requires a certain degree of diligence, investors who utilize a technical analysis can feel relatively confident that their own ability to read the daily fluctuations of the currency market are sufficiently adequate to give them the knowledge necessary to make informed investments.

Rich McIver is a contributing writer for The Forex Blog: Currency Trading News ( http://www.forexblog.org ).

When you are looking at forex trading methods you have choice between following an automated trading system or trading manually to set of rules so which is best lets take a look…

Forex Robots

Have rules build into them and there simply plug and play time efficient and require very little trading knowledge.

There are some good ones about that are sold online but most (about 99%) don’t work and the track records are simply made up and simulated in hindsight. Most carry the disclaimer below, look out for it and forget it:

“CFTC RULE 4.41 – Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown”.

There are some that have been traded and tested and have real time track records but be careful – you still have to follow it with discipline and for this, you need to know how and why it works long term.

You need to be confident enough in its logic, to stick with it through periods of drawdown, if you dont understand how and why it works and have confidence in its ability to win longer term, your discipline will go and you have no system.

There are even some free ones that make money. I have written frequently on Richard Donchian’s 4 week rule and this incredibly powerful but simple system, is free! Look it up in our other articles.

Trading an automated trading system ( if you find the right one) is time efficient and easy – but you must have a disciplined and patient personality, to keep executing the signals in line with the rules and this is hard, when you had a losing period!

Manual Trading

There is a right way and a wrong way when trading manually – lets start with the wrong way.

The “shoot from the hip” news and story trader – He simply trades on a whim and of course as news is instantly discounted and his emotions are to the fore he losses.

The other trader is the trader who likes to do every trade manually but is still guided by rigid rules in terms of, executing his trading signal and money management.

I am this sort of trader and it suits me as I am involved and although I use rules I can pick and choose the best trades in terms of risk reward – this trading method is obviously my personal choice and each trader will know which method is right fof them.

You can make money with forex robots, just choose wisely and be prepared to have confidence and discipline in the system you follow. As a manual trader you still need discipline but it probably suits the trader who enjoys a challenge.

Which ever trading method you choose, remember to have a disciplined approach and make sure you employ rigid money management criteria, to lead you to long term currency trading success.

NEW! 2 x FREE FOREX TRADER PDF’s

For free 2 x trading Pdf’s, with 50 of essential info and more on Forex Trading Systems visit our website at: http://www.learncurrencytradingonline.com

By admin | December 2, 2008 - 6:48 pm - Posted in Articles

If you’re researching Forex Trading Software you’ve probably already heard of Forex Brotherhood and Forex Tracer, but you have heard of Forex Funnel? Possibly not!

Forex Funnel differs slightly from both of the above mentioned products. Forex Tracer is an autopilot trading system that is perfect for those who already have some knowledge of Forex Trading, while Forex Brotherhood is the closest to a full service trading system that you can get for a reasonable price. Forex Funnel sits somewhere in between the two of these, being a system that offers some support.

Forex Funnel, as with both of the above products, includes expert advisor software (for those not in the know, that’s just another name for software that trades on the markets automatically). The software is setup to trade on the USD / JPY currency pair. The software is fully automated – basically you set it up with your own parameters and it will sit and monitor the signals and trade at the appropriate time in order to make you money.

Forex Funnel also comes with video instructions that explain every single step in getting the system setup and working. This makes the system setup idiot-proof.

Perhaps the crowning glory with this system though is that it does provide email support. There are some systems on the internet that sell the product and then vanish – you can’t get hold of them to ask them any questions that you may have. Forex Funnel is different, they are there to answer your questions and help and get you up and running.

What doesn’t Forex Funnel have? Well, although it provides great technical support, it doesn’t provide any trading related support. So, if you are completely new to Forex Trading you might be better off with another product such as Forex Brotherhood, where you can get daily guidance from an expert broker. Although the price is a little higher, this helps you avoid any nasty losses.

At the end of the day, the most important thing is that you buy a system that you are comfortable with.

As such, Forex Funnel comes highly recommended. However, if you would like to read more about the other two systems you can read a three product review at http://forex-trading-systems-4-you.com

By admin | November 19, 2008 - 8:14 am - Posted in Articles

So you’re interested in Forex trading but you’re losing money like an addicted gambler? Have no fear, here’s the solution.

Match Your System with The Market

Of course, whatever style or method you choose to trade, it needs to be profitable. Mathematically, this means that at the end of the day (or month, or year), if you clump all the winners and losers, you’ll end up net positive. Statiscally, this is called having an edge, or having a positive edge. You must make sure, through backtesting and managed forward testing, that your system is indeed profitable. You might be asking, “But I can’t seem to follow my trading plan.” We’ll get to that later, but for now, let’s assume that you CAN follow your trading system perfectly.

Matching your system with the market means that the system works for that market at the time. Keep in mind your system might work for the EUR, but maybe not for the CAD. Also keep in mind that the system might have worked for the previous 6 months, but something happened to the market that the participants are acting differently now; this would mean that your system was profitable for the past 6 months but the market change has nullified your system’s edge.

Let’s assume that your system is somewhat profitable if you could follow it perfectly. So what’s next?

Match The System With Yourself

At this point, you might be thinking, “Hey, I was looking for a How to trade forex article, not some self-help psychoanalysis article.” Do yourself a favor, and read through the entire article, because this might be the key ingredient your trading has been missing.

This is the part where 99% of the traders don’t seem to understand. If you happen to talk with other traders, please feel free to point this section of the article out; it might be the missing key ingredient in your entire system.

It’s pretty obvious that if you have a profitable trading system written down in your trading plan, but you can’t seem to follow the rules, that trading plan is as good as useless. So why do you deviate from you trading plan that you’ve researched so hard for? There are two primary reasons: 1) Your expectations as an analyst versus your expectations as a trader. And 2) Your trading system doesn’t match your personality. I could write an entire book on the first issue, but we’ll focus on the second issue in this article.

To trade with consistency, you need to understand how your subconscious mind works. If your trading system contradicts who YOU are as a person, your mind will NATURALLY pull you away from that trading style, and SUBCONSCIOUSLY gravitate you to a particularly different trading style. A lot of people get confused here, and this is one tough concept, (and really, not too many people want to learn about it) so don’t worry if you’re confused. Let me give you a few examples, the first ones illustrating basic principles, then drilling down to more subtle points:

First example is John. John likes playing video games. He loves playing 5 handed table Texas Hold’em (poker) with his friends. He likes playing hardcore sports. He is a risk-seeker. His natural trading style is day trading and/or fast swing trading. He cannot naturally trade longer time frames because that’s not who John is, and John is a fast-paced guy. So no matter trading system he’s researched, backtested, and written, he won’t be able to trade it unless it fits his naturally fast-paced personality. Also note that his personality has gravitated John towards all these other fast-paced activities like video games and poker.

Let me give you a more subtle example: Susan was an underdog all her life. So she pictures herself as David who fights against all the Goliaths of life. Whenever there’s a competition, election, or basketball game, she always roots for the underdog because subconsciously she relates more with the underdog.
How does this affect her trading? She’s naturally a fader. Fading the market means going the opposite of the major trend. So while trend followers go with the majority of the market participants’ decisions, Susan is the opposite; she naturally likes to bottom/top pick and go against the trend. This means that she has to either 1) change herself to match the trend following system (which is hard), or 2) find and develop a profitable fading trading system (which is easier). Mostly likely, she’ll have a better time trading sideways markets, fading at the edges of the channel. Of course, how she decides to trail also depends on her self-image.

At this point, you might be thinking, “Ok, this is starting to make a little more sense now. But I don’t really know how to do all this stuff.” Let’s move on to the final point.

Know Yourself

Schedule a 1~2 hour block of free time and go through this this action plan:

  • 1. Make a list of all the activities you enjoy doing.
  • 2. Make a list of all the people you naturally enjoy hanging out with.
  • 3. Make a list of all the movies, TV shows, sports, etc. you naturally find pleasure in.
  • 4. (Insert more questions you can make up)

Take a close look at all those items, and focus on analyzing what kind of item it is. For each item determine:

  • 1. Is this fast-paced, medium-paced, or laid back? Are you a New York City person or a Southern California person?
  • 2. Is this more number smart or people smart? Are you naturally good with numbers or with peoples’ feelings?
  • 3. Is this more of an underdog or topdog activity? When you watch a tennis match, do you root for the topdog or the underdog?

All these things reflect who you are at the time. The more laid back you are, the larger the timeframe you need to trade (because you would trade less frequently and the trades would take a longer time). The more fast-paced you are, the more you should swing trade or even day trade. The more number smart you are, the more systematic, quantitative, and progamming-oriented you are with your backtesting and trading. The opposite would be much more of a discretionary trader. The more topdog-inclined you are, the more of a trend-following system you need to trade. The opposite would be fading at the edges of a sideways channel.

But keep in mind that most people are a combination of the two. Explore yourself. Take some time for self reflection. Here’re more questions for you to really think about:

  • 1. What does this list say about how I should trail my trades?
  • 2. How should I enter and exit? Partial profits or not?
  • 3. Which markets should I trade? Which session should I trade?
  • 4. Should I consider trading stocks, options, or futures instead?
  • 5. Should I use technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or both?
  • 6. Am I even right for trading?

Let’s look at one last example:

Mathematically, if you don’t take partial profits – that is, you enter and exit only once, and not exit multiple positions – you would make approximately 3~4 times more profit than traders that do take partial profits. To clarify, let’s say you’re long 3 contracts, and you unload 1 lot at +25 pips, the second at +45, and the last at +60: this is what I mean by taking partial profits. But let’s say you’re short 3 lots, and you decide to exit all 3 lots at +47 pips. That would be the opposite of taking partial profits.

But again, let’s take a closer look at what I talked about in this article and relate it to this point: Sure, on paper you’d be more profitable, but then again, all trading plans are profitable. It’s just that you couldn’t follow that plan in the first place. Just as likely, not taking partial profits is more profitable, but it’s the same principle – it’s easier on your mind to take partial profits. It’s a trade off between psychological ease and economical gain.

There is a deep underlying reason why every trader naturally wants to take partial profits, and I could write a separate article on it, but suffice it to say that everyone initially is naturally inclined to cut profits short and let losses run. (As a teaser, it’s about how we grew up in society/school/parents that has instilled beliefs that are beneficial to us in society but detrimental in the markets.) The more question is can you trade this way? Should you trade this way? Forget about what’s more profitable on paper. Focus on being able to trade with consistency by trading according to your natural self.

Well I hope this article has shed some interesting insights with your trading. Perhaps you’re ecstatic at this new finding, perhaps you thought this was a waste of time, or perhaps you don’t even have a trading system yet. Don’t worry, take your time.

So what now?

So now you’ve done your due diligence and now you know what your ideal trading system is. Well, good news! We’ve done most of the research for you. My website has compiled most of today’s forex trading system. If you’re somewhat of a discretionary swing trader, I highly suggest this Forex trading system. Feel free to browse for the right system for you. Feel free to even browse for more Forex education.

Now, before I finish, I’d like to leave you with this: Risk is not a function of the market, but a function of the investor. The greatest thing you can invest in is not in a specific instrument or market. The greatest thing you can invest in is yourself. Never stop reading, never stop learning.